by sslifer | Jul 8, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 8, 2022 The June employment report was stronger than what the market had expected. The steady employment gains that continue to average 374 thousand are not painting a picture that says the U.S. economy is currently in recession. During a recession employment...
by sslifer | Jul 1, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 1, 2022 Typically the final look at any quarter’s GDP is a non-event. And at first blush the recent revision to first quarter GDP from -1.5% to -1.6% appears to be a yawner. But upon closer inspection one finds that consumer spending— which is 70% of GDP – was...
by sslifer | Jun 29, 2022 | Federal Reserve, NumberNomics Notes
April 4, 2024 In the wake of the economic meltdown caused by the government’s dramatic measures to halt the spread of the corona virus the Fed leaped into action. It boosted its balance sheet by about $3.0 trillion in March and April 2020 primarily via...
by sslifer | Jun 24, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 24, 2022 The markets swing daily as the odds of recession rise or fall. Everybody is trying to figure out how high interest rates might need to go to bring inflation back down to the 2.0% mark. Keep in mind that a recession is characterized by declining...
by sslifer | Jun 17, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 17, 2022 While the Fed believes it can pull off a soft landing, the markets are convinced that a recession is coming. And they are probably right. But when? With core CPI inflation likely to be 5.2% at the end of next year, the 3.8% funds rate that the Fed...
by sslifer | Jun 10, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 10, 2022 The Fed and economists like to exclude food and energy prices from their calculation of the underlying rate of inflation because they are quite volatile on a monthly basis. For example, a drought could boost food prices for several months, but they will...
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