Trade-Weighted Dollar

June 9, 2022 The trade-weighted value of the dollar, which represents the value of the dollar against the currencies of a broad group of U.S. trading partners has risen 7.7% from where it was at this time last year and it is expected to continue to rise in value...

Think Real

June 3, 2022 The long-awaited slowdown in the pace of economic activity remains elusive.  Jobs are being created at a  robust pace.  Consumers are spending.  Businesses are investing.  The housing market has slowed but largely because of a lack of supply rather than a...

Money Matters

May 27, 2022 For months the discussion has focused on the highest inflation rate in 40 years and how to shrink it to the Fed’s desired 2.0% pace.  The Fed seems to think it can accomplish that objective by raising the funds rate to 2.75% by the end of this year and...

Business Inventories / Sales Ratio

May 17, 2022 Firms are always trying to keep their inventories in line with sales.  When the economy falls into recession, typically businesses do not cut back production as quickly as sales decline, so the inventory/sales ratio rises sharply  — which is exactly...

Tone Down the Rhetoric!

May 13, 2022 We got the message.  The Fed has convinced us it is going to be tough on inflation.  But that tough talk has scared the pants off all of us.    Fed officials have suggested the funds rate is going to 2.5% by the end of this year, 3.5% by the end of 2023,...