by sslifer | Jul 29, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 29, 2022 The recession/no recession debate will continue for a while and be especially heated amongst politicians. When the dust settles we are certain that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will not categorize the performance of the economy in the...
by sslifer | Jul 22, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 22, 2022 The dance between growth, inflation, and Fed action continues this week as the Fed once again will raise the federal funds rate. The consensus is for an increase of 0.75% which would put the funds rate at 2.5%. Whatever the outcome of the meeting, this...
by sslifer | Jul 15, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 15, 2022 Second quarter GDP growth will be released on Thursday morning, July 28 – the day after the FOMC meeting. For what it is worth, we expect 0.5% GDP growth in that quarter. But combining that growth rate with a 1.6% decline in the first quarter paints a...
by sslifer | Jul 8, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 8, 2022 The June employment report was stronger than what the market had expected. The steady employment gains that continue to average 374 thousand are not painting a picture that says the U.S. economy is currently in recession. During a recession employment...
by sslifer | Jul 1, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 1, 2022 Typically the final look at any quarter’s GDP is a non-event. And at first blush the recent revision to first quarter GDP from -1.5% to -1.6% appears to be a yawner. But upon closer inspection one finds that consumer spending— which is 70% of GDP – was...
by sslifer | Jun 24, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 24, 2022 The markets swing daily as the odds of recession rise or fall. Everybody is trying to figure out how high interest rates might need to go to bring inflation back down to the 2.0% mark. Keep in mind that a recession is characterized by declining...
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