by sslifer | Nov 8, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
November 8, 2019 A research piece written by Federal Reserve Board economist Claudia Sahm was highlighted recently in the Wall Street Journal — “Rule Aims to Spot Recessions Earlier”. It has sent the economics community into a tizzy. Typically, when the...
by sslifer | Nov 1, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
November 1, 2019 Occasionally, a single piece of information can alter the economic outlook. As has been the case fairly often in the past, the catalyst is the employment report. That was certainly true this time with the payroll employment data for October. ...
by sslifer | Oct 25, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 25, 2019 Every indicator related to manufacturing has been steadily weakening for a year –durable goods orders, industrial production, and the purchasing managers index. As the drumbeat of bad factory news continues there is a temptation to conclude...
by sslifer | Oct 18, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 18, 2019 We will learn a lot more about the economy and the Fed’s policy stance in a short 3-day window at the end of this month – our first look at third quarter GDP growth on Wednesday morning, October 30, followed a few hours later by the Fed’s latest...
by sslifer | Oct 11, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 11, 2019 The budget deficit for fiscal 2019 is now in the book. It jumped from $779 billion in 2018 to $984 billion. The only good news is that it managed to stay below the $1.0 trillion level. Unfortunately, that is the last time that will happen. Between...
by sslifer | Oct 4, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 4, 2019 A strong consensus has emerged that the economy has softened considerably which many people think will result in a recession by the end of next year. We could not disagree more. It seems to us that most economists are viewing slower employment growth...
Follow Me