by sslifer | Apr 28, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 28, 2023 One of the biggest economic puzzles today is the surprising divergence between consumer confidence, which has plummeted, and consumer spending which has continued to climb at a moderate pace. That makes absolutely no sense. If we are as scared as we...
by sslifer | Oct 28, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 28, 2022 Consumer sentiment is currently far below the level that existed when COVID was spreading rapidly in the spring of 2020, and is roughly on a par with where it was when the economy was experiencing the so-called “Great Recession” in 2008-09. Typically...
by sslifer | Sep 30, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 30, 2022 We continue to believe that consumer and business sentiment ratcheted downwards after September 21 when Fed Chair Powell emphasized that the Fed was willing to tolerate a recession as an unfortunate consequence of its effort to reduce inflation. ...
by sslifer | Sep 23, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 23, 2022 The outcome of the Fed’s meeting this past week heightened a fear factor that had been percolating for months. It was not what the Fed did by raising the funds rate by 0.75%. That was largely expected. The scary part was what Fed Chair Powell...
by sslifer | Jul 1, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 1, 2022 Typically the final look at any quarter’s GDP is a non-event. And at first blush the recent revision to first quarter GDP from -1.5% to -1.6% appears to be a yawner. But upon closer inspection one finds that consumer spending— which is 70% of GDP – was...
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