How Bad Off Are You?

April 28, 2023 One of the biggest economic puzzles today is the surprising divergence between consumer confidence, which has plummeted, and consumer spending which has continued to climb at a moderate pace.  That makes absolutely no sense.  If we are as scared as we...

The Path Ahead Is Murky

September 30, 2022 We continue to believe that consumer and business sentiment ratcheted downwards after September 21 when Fed Chair Powell emphasized that the Fed was willing to tolerate a recession as an unfortunate consequence of its effort to reduce inflation. ...

A “Holy Cow” Moment?

September 23, 2022 The outcome of the Fed’s meeting this past week heightened a fear factor that had been percolating for months.  It was not what the Fed did by raising the funds rate by 0.75%.  That was largely expected.  The scary part was what Fed Chair Powell...

Consumers Rein in Spending

July 1, 2022 Typically the final look at any quarter’s GDP is a non-event.  And at first blush the recent revision to first quarter GDP from -1.5% to -1.6% appears to be a yawner.  But upon closer inspection one finds that consumer spending— which is  70% of GDP – was...