by sslifer | Jul 1, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 1, 2022 Typically the final look at any quarter’s GDP is a non-event. And at first blush the recent revision to first quarter GDP from -1.5% to -1.6% appears to be a yawner. But upon closer inspection one finds that consumer spending— which is 70% of GDP – was...
by sslifer | Jun 24, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 24, 2022 The markets swing daily as the odds of recession rise or fall. Everybody is trying to figure out how high interest rates might need to go to bring inflation back down to the 2.0% mark. Keep in mind that a recession is characterized by declining...
by sslifer | Jun 17, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 17, 2022 While the Fed believes it can pull off a soft landing, the markets are convinced that a recession is coming. And they are probably right. But when? With core CPI inflation likely to be 5.2% at the end of next year, the 3.8% funds rate that the Fed...
by sslifer | Jun 3, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 3, 2022 The long-awaited slowdown in the pace of economic activity remains elusive. Jobs are being created at a robust pace. Consumers are spending. Businesses are investing. The housing market has slowed but largely because of a lack of supply rather than a...
by sslifer | Apr 8, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 8, 2022 With a little help from Fed officials the markets finally woke up to the fact that the Fed is far behind the curve and will need to act far more aggressively than Powell described in mid-March. Based on speeches given last week the Fed seems intent on...
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