by sslifer | Jan 19, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 19, 2024 Most economists expect the economy to slow in the first half of 2023 and some still anticipate a recession in the months ahead. That appears to be an increasingly unlikely scenario. The economy closed out last year on a strong note and that strength...
by sslifer | Nov 3, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
November 3, 2022 The employment report for October confirmed that the monthly gains in employment continue to slow gradually. The 150 thousand increase in employment was held down by the loss of 33 thousand workers in the automobile industry caused by the UAW strike,...
by sslifer | Sep 29, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 29, 2023 When inflation first started to rise in mid-2020 the Federal Reserve told us that we did not need to worry because it was “temporary” and attributable to supply constraints that led to notably higher — but temporary — increases in...
by sslifer | Jul 14, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 14, 2023 Economists continue to expect a recession. Some in the second half of this year. Others, like ourselves, a mild one in the first half of next year. But the stock market is telling a different story. Somewhat remarkably the stock market is within 5%...
by sslifer | May 19, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 19, 2023 The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators (LEI) has been falling steadily since December 2021. The index anticipates turning points in the business cycle by around 10 months. Based on this steep slide the Conference Board forecasts a recession...
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