by sslifer | Feb 16, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 16, 2023 Market participants have finally realized that seven rate cuts in 2024 were not going to happen. They now anticipate four. That seems far more reasonable. There is simply no reason for the Fed to rush. Fourth quarter GDP growth was robust at...
by sslifer | Feb 2, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 2, 2024 At first blush the employment report for January appears to be an upside blowout. Payroll employment surged by 353 thousand when a gain of 175 thousand had been expected. Average hourly earnings jumped 0.6% in January versus an increase of 0.3%...
by sslifer | Jan 19, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 19, 2024 Most economists expect the economy to slow in the first half of 2023 and some still anticipate a recession in the months ahead. That appears to be an increasingly unlikely scenario. The economy closed out last year on a strong note and that strength...
by sslifer | Jan 12, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 12, 2024 The next move by the Fed will be to lower interest rates. But when? Before the Fed begins to reduce the fed funds rate, it will first stop shrinking its balance sheet. It has been letting some securities mature each month without being replaced in...
by sslifer | Jan 5, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 5, 2024 The very early economic data reported for December were confusing to say the least. Payroll employment climbed 216 thousand in December which was bigger than anticipated, but the civilian employment measure used in calculating the unemployment rate...
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