by sslifer | Sep 9, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 9, 2022 We do not talk about growth outside the U.S. too much because the trade sector is such a small piece of the GDP pie. Typically, developments in Europe and Asia have only a minor impact on U.S. GDP growth and inflation. But that is not the case...
by sslifer | Jun 17, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 17, 2022 While the Fed believes it can pull off a soft landing, the markets are convinced that a recession is coming. And they are probably right. But when? With core CPI inflation likely to be 5.2% at the end of next year, the 3.8% funds rate that the Fed...
by sslifer | Mar 18, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
March 18, 2022 The press described last week’s Fed’s tightening initiative as the most aggressive in years – which is true. But the Fed has dug itself into such a deep hole that the actions it outlined will not be nearly enough to shrink inflation to the 2.0% mark. ...
by sslifer | Feb 4, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 4, 2022 The January employment report was full of surprises all of which lead to the conclusion that the labor market is extremely tight and the Fed is far behind the curve. Payroll employment rose markedly in January. But COVID and bad weather were...
by sslifer | Nov 12, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
November 12, 2012 The September CPI report made it clear that the recent burst of inflation is not going away any time soon and may be getting worse. This should not be a great surprise but it is, apparently, to Fed officials. Maybe the unexpected September data...
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