by sslifer | Jun 16, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 16, 2023 We are beginning to wonder if the economy has a lot more momentum than is generally believed at the moment. Virtually every economist on the planet expects the U.S. economy to slip into recession later this year or early in 2024 because, surely, real...
by sslifer | Jun 2, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 2, 2023 The monthly employment report is always a key indicator for economists in assessing the degree of economic activity for any given month. It is significant because it is the first solid evidence of what the economy did in the prior month. It has the...
by sslifer | May 19, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 19, 2023 The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators (LEI) has been falling steadily since December 2021. The index anticipates turning points in the business cycle by around 10 months. Based on this steep slide the Conference Board forecasts a recession...
by sslifer | May 12, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 12, 2023 Once again our leaders in Washington are playing a dangerous game of chicken with debt limit legislation. Thus far the markets are largely ignoring the issue, and for good reason. Congress has acted on 78 separate occasions since 1960 to raise the debt...
by sslifer | May 5, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 5, 2023 Data for the second quarter are beginning to filter in. One has to squint closely to find signs of further slowing in the pace of economic activity. Payroll employment rose 253 thousand in April. The unemployment rate declined 0.1% to 3.4%. Car sales...
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