by sslifer | Jan 31, 2024 | Inflation, NumberNomics Notes
January 31, 2024 The employment cost index for civilian workers climbed at a 3.5% rate in the fourth quarter after rising 4.3% rate in the second quarter Over the course of the past year it has risen 4.2%. With the unemployment rate currently at 3.7% and full...
by sslifer | Sep 15, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 15, 2023 As data continue to flow in, third quarter GDP growth seems likely to be a solid 3.5%. But in October as student loan borrowers resume payments on their debt the pace of consumer spending is almost certain to slow. At the same time workers at the...
by sslifer | Feb 17, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 17, 2023 One of the most perplexing aspects of today’s economy is the enduring strength of the labor market. The three-month average increase of 356 thousand jobs is far larger than anyone expected. The most often cited explanation is that given the extreme...
by sslifer | Feb 3, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 3, 2023 The economy may be softening, but you get little support for such an argument from the January employment report which was unambiguously strong. That raises several questions. Will growth slow enough to bring down the inflation rate? Will...
by sslifer | Jan 6, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 6, 2023 The extreme labor shortage that virtually every business in the country is experiencing is not going away. At the end of last year the labor force is estimated to be 2.9 million workers shy of where it should be. Some have died from COVID. Many...
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