by sslifer | Jun 17, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 17, 2022 While the Fed believes it can pull off a soft landing, the markets are convinced that a recession is coming. And they are probably right. But when? With core CPI inflation likely to be 5.2% at the end of next year, the 3.8% funds rate that the Fed...
by sslifer | May 6, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 6, 2022 In our view, it is increasingly clear that the 1.4% GDP decline in the first quarter was largely caused by supply line challenges rather than any significant drop in demand. Early in the second quarter the monthly purchasing managers indexes continue to...
by sslifer | Feb 4, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 4, 2022 The January employment report was full of surprises all of which lead to the conclusion that the labor market is extremely tight and the Fed is far behind the curve. Payroll employment rose markedly in January. But COVID and bad weather were...
by sslifer | Aug 6, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 6, 2021 The economy is charging ahead in the first month of the third quarter. Employment increased by 950 thousand workers in both June and July. The unemployment rate fell 0.5% in a single month to 5.4%. After Labor Day, once the Federal unemployment...
by sslifer | May 7, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 7, 2021 Payroll employment rose 266 thousand in April which was far smaller than the 950 thousand increase that had been expected. Firms are struggling to find an adequate number of workers to satisfy the growing demand. To a large extent the shortfall can be...
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