Initial Unemployment Claims

March 13, 2025 Initial unemployment claims declined 2 thousand in the week ending March 8 to 220 thousand after falling 20 thousand in the previous week.    There is no evidence that the labor market has been affected by layoffs thus far.  However, we know that some...

Consumer Price Index

March 12, 2025 The CPI rose 0.2% in February after jumping 0.5% in January and 0.4% in December. The year-over-year increase is 2.8%.  We now expect the overall CPI to increase 3.2% in 2025. Food prices rose 0.2% in February after climbing 0.4% in January and 0.3% in...

Job Openings

March 11, 2025 The  Labor Department reported that job openings rose 232 thousand in January to 7,740 thousand after having declined 523 thousand in December and having risen 416 thousand in November.   The pace of economic activity has remained relatively solid while...

Small Business Optimism

March 11, 2025 . Small business optimism declined 2.1 points in February to 100.7 after having declined 2.3 points in January.  The media focus seems to be on the fact that the index has declined in each of the past two months.  That is true,  But the index level also...

Payroll Employment

March 7, 2025 Payroll employment climbed by 151 thousand in February after having climbed by 125 thousand in January and 323 thousand in December.  The job gain was roughly in  line with expectations, but the quality of the jobs has deteriorated.   Many of those jobs...

Private Employment

March 7, 2025 Private sector employment climbed by 140 thousand in February after having risen by 81 thousand in January and 287 thousand in December.  The job gain was roughly in  line with expectations, but the quality of the jobs has deteriorated.   Many of those...