by sslifer | Dec 20, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
December 20, 2022 Recent Fed policy has been confusing to say the least. In September the focus was on the unemployment rate and the Fed eased aggressively. Two months later the focus shifted back to inflation and the Fed seemed nervous. The Fed basically told us...
by sslifer | Dec 20, 2024 | Inflation, NumberNomics Notes
December 20, 2024 There are many different measures of inflation, but the one that the Federal Reserve considers to be most important is the personal consumption expenditures deflator, in particular the PCE deflator excluding the volatile food and energy components....
by sslifer | Dec 19, 2024 | Housing, NumberNomics Notes
December 19, 2024 . Existing home sales rose 4.8% in November to 4,150 thousand after increasing 3.4% in October That is the fastest pace of home sales since March. The steady increase in jobs is boosting income, mortgage rates should fall somewhat in the months...
by sslifer | Dec 19, 2024 | Forecasts, NumberNomics Notes
December 19, 2024 The Fed cut the funds rate again in December to 4.3%. We expect the Fed to continue reducing the funds rate to 3.8% by the end of next year. We now expect GDP growth of 2,5% in the fourth quarter followed by 2.9% GDP growth in 2025. Given the GDP...
by sslifer | Dec 19, 2024 | GDP, NumberNomics Notes
December 19, 2024 . The final estimate of third quarter GDP was 3.1% which is slightly higher than the preliminary estimate of 2.8%. This compares to GDP growth of 3.0% in the second quarter. Growth in the past year has been 2.7% Final sales, which is GDP excluding...
by sslifer | Dec 19, 2024 | GDP, NumberNomics Notes
December 19, 2024 When the economy is slowing down, firms will accumulate unwanted inventories. Those inventories still show up in GDP, but they are unsold. Hence, GDP will be biased upwards. Similarly, in good times businesses will reduce inventory levels to...
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