by sslifer | Apr 11, 2025 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 11, 2025 It is hard not to see the potential dangers from the Trump-initiated trade war. Consumer confidence has plunged. Small business confidence has declined. Investor confidence has collapsed. Those who envision a recession ahead or stagflation can make...
by sslifer | Apr 11, 2025 | Forecasts, NumberNomics Notes
April 11, 2025 The world has turned topsy-turvy as tariffs are imposed, then postponed and, perhaps, reimposed. Nobody knows what to expect. We are all reacting to the latest events and making guesses about what happens next. We suspect that much of the current...
by sslifer | Apr 11, 2025 | Consumer, NumberNomics Notes
April 11, 2025 The preliminary estimate of consumer sentiment for April fell 6.2 points to 50.8 after having declined 10.7 points in March and 3.4 points in February. This is the fourth consecutive decline in sentiment. The January level is the lowest since June...
by sslifer | Apr 11, 2025 | Inflation, NumberNomics Notes
April 11, 2025 The Producer Price Index for final demand includes producer prices for goods, as well as prices for construction, services, government purchases, and exports and covers over 75% of domestic production. Producer prices for final demand declined 0.4% in...
by sslifer | Apr 10, 2025 | Employment, NumberNomics Notes
April 10, 2025 Initial unemployment claims rose 4 thousand in the week ending April 5 to 223 thousand after declining 6 thousand in the previous week. There is no evidence that the labor market has been affected by layoffs thus far. However, we know that some...
by sslifer | Apr 10, 2025 | Inflation, NumberNomics Notes
March 12, 2025 The CPI declined 0.1% in March after having risen 0.2% in February after jumping 0.5% in January. This is the first decline in the overall CPI since 2020. The year-over-year increase is 2.4%. We now expect the overall CPI to increase 3.2% in 2025....
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