by sslifer | Oct 25, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 25, 2019 Every indicator related to manufacturing has been steadily weakening for a year –durable goods orders, industrial production, and the purchasing managers index. As the drumbeat of bad factory news continues there is a temptation to conclude...
by sslifer | Oct 18, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 18, 2019 We will learn a lot more about the economy and the Fed’s policy stance in a short 3-day window at the end of this month – our first look at third quarter GDP growth on Wednesday morning, October 30, followed a few hours later by the Fed’s latest...
by sslifer | Oct 11, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 11, 2019 The budget deficit for fiscal 2019 is now in the book. It jumped from $779 billion in 2018 to $984 billion. The only good news is that it managed to stay below the $1.0 trillion level. Unfortunately, that is the last time that will happen. Between...
by sslifer | Oct 4, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 4, 2019 A strong consensus has emerged that the economy has softened considerably which many people think will result in a recession by the end of next year. We could not disagree more. It seems to us that most economists are viewing slower employment growth...
by sslifer | Sep 27, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 27, 2019 There is ample evidence that the housing sector is on the mend following its steady slide over the course of the past year. The improvement reflects a drop to near-record-low mortgage rates of 3.6%. That has given a temporary boost to the...
by sslifer | Sep 20, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 20, 2019 The biggest surprise in recent years is that inflation has not begun to climb. The labor market has been at full employment for a while, we have seen upward pressure on wages, but inflation has remained dormant. It is important to understand why...
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