by sslifer | Sep 30, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 30, 2022 We continue to believe that consumer and business sentiment ratcheted downwards after September 21 when Fed Chair Powell emphasized that the Fed was willing to tolerate a recession as an unfortunate consequence of its effort to reduce inflation. ...
by sslifer | Sep 2, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 2, 2022 The Fed will raise rates at its meeting later this month. Most likely is an increase of 0.75%. But whatever happens, interest rates will climb significantly higher in the months ahead. The Fed has told us that. Pay attention! It is tempting to...
by sslifer | Jul 15, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 15, 2022 Second quarter GDP growth will be released on Thursday morning, July 28 – the day after the FOMC meeting. For what it is worth, we expect 0.5% GDP growth in that quarter. But combining that growth rate with a 1.6% decline in the first quarter paints a...
by sslifer | Jul 1, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 1, 2022 Typically the final look at any quarter’s GDP is a non-event. And at first blush the recent revision to first quarter GDP from -1.5% to -1.6% appears to be a yawner. But upon closer inspection one finds that consumer spending— which is 70% of GDP – was...
by sslifer | Apr 1, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 1, 2022 The March employment report indicates that the economy continued to expand at a moderate pace in March. GDP growth in the first quarter was hit early by COVID difficulties and later by the outbreak of war. But yet jobs climbed by 431 thousand in March...
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