Raising the Speed Limit
October 25, 2024 On Thursday we will get our first look at third quarter GDP growth. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast suggests it will be 3.4%. But we know from the employment report that hours worked in the quarter edged up by just 0.2% which suggests that GDP...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
October 24, 2024 The Fed cut the funds rate 0.5% in September which puts it in a range from 4.75%-5.0%. It was the first of what will prove to be a series of rate cuts ultimately reducing the funds rate to 3.3% We now expect GDP growth of 3.0% in the third quarter...
2025 Economic Outlook Conference
2025 Economic Outlook Conference In times of uncertainty whether you are running a business or planning your investments, knowledge can be your most valuable asset. Stephen Slifer, Owner and Chief Economist at NumberNomics will provide insight...
Existing Home Sales
October 23, 2024 . Existing home sales declined 1.0% in September to 3,840 thousand after falling 2.0% in August and rising 1.5% in July. The recent slide in mortgage rates and further Fed easing between now and yearend should boost sales in the next few months....
Another Huge Budget Deficit — But Who Cares?
October 18, 2024 Fiscal year 2024 ended with a yawning budget gap of $1.9 trillion. Another $1.9 trillion was added to the already record amount of debt outstanding with much more to come. The baseline deficit projections from the Congressional Budget Office do not...
Housing Starts
October 18, 2024 Housing starts declined 0.5% in September to 1,354 thousand after having jumped 7.8% in August after plunging 5.0% in July. The combo of Hurricanes Helene and Milton may have reduced the September construction data somewhat as starts in the South...
Homebuilder Confidence
October 17 2024 This series rose 2 points in October to 43 after climbing 2 points in September to 41 after declining 2 points in August.. These back-to-back increases follow four straight declines in this series. Keep in mind that the breakeven point for this...
Industrial Production
October 17, 2024 Industrial production declined 0.3% in September after rising 0.3% in August after having fallen 0.6% in July. The Fed reported that Hurricanes Helene and Beryl subtracted about 0.3% from the index and the Boeing strike subtracted another 0.3%. ...
Initial Unemployment Claims
October 17, 2024 Initial unemployment claims declined 19 thousand in the week ending October 12 to 241 thousand after jumping 35 thousand in the previous week. This series has risen slightly in the past three months. The big increase last week may well reflect...
Retail Sales
October 17, 2024 Retail sales rose 0.4% in September after gaining 0.1% in August and having jumped 1.2% in July. In the past year retail sales have risen 1.9%. Motor vehicle sales were unchanged in September after having declined 0.4% in August but jumping 4.4%...
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