Small Business Optimism
May 13, 2025 . Small business optimism fell 1.6 points in April to 95.8 after having declined 3.3 points in March to 97.4 after falling 2.1 points in February to 100.7 after having declined 2.3 points in January. The media focus seems to be on the fact that the...
Consumer Price Index
May 13, 2025 The CPI rose 0.2% in April after having declined 0.1% in March.. The year-over-year increase is 2.3%. We now expect the overall CPI to increase 3.1% in 2025. Food prices declined 0.1% in April after having climbed 0.4% in March. In the past year food...
We Are In this Together
May 9, 2025 The tariffs imposed by the U.S. and the countermeasures employed by its trading partners are a hot topic of discussion amongst economists, business leaders, consumers, and investors in the U.S. While estimates of the magnitude, breadth, and duration of...
Nonfarm Productivity
May 8, 2025 Non-farm productivity declined 0.8% in the first quarter after rising 1.7% in the fourth quarter. The first quarter decline consisted of a 0.3% decline in output combined with a 0.6% increase in hours worked. Hence, a 0.8% decline in productivity in...
Unit Labor Costs
May; 8, 2025 Unit labor costs might be a term that is not familiar to you. Unit labor costs represent the increase in compensation adjusted for the gains in productivity. You might think that if labor costs are rising that would put upward pressure on...
Hourly Compensation
May 8, 2025 The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that hourly compensation rose 4.8% in the first quarter after climbing 3.7% in the fourth quarter. In the past year compensation has risen 2.7%. Growth in hourly compensation is a good thing, but that increase...
Initial Unemployment Claims
May 8, 2025 Initial unemployment claims declined 13 thousand in the week ending May 3 to 228 thousand after climbing 18 thousand in the previous week. There is no evidence that the labor market has been affected by layoffs thus far. However, we know that some...
Trade Deficit
May 6, 2025 The trade deficit widened by $17.3 billion in March to a record to $140.5 billion after having narrowed by $7.5 billion in February Firms have been racing to import goods prior to the imposition of tariffs. Exports rose $0.5 billion or 0.2% in March to...
Purchasing Managers Index — Nonmanufacturing
May 5, 2025 The Institute for Supply Management not only publishes an index of manufacturing activity each month, they publish two days later a survey of service sector firms. The business activity index declined 2.2 points in April to 53.7 after having risen 1.5...
Economy Remains on Solid Ground
May 2, 2025 The imposition of tariffs is causing massive distortions in the data. First quarter GDP declined 0.3%, but to get goods into the country prior to the imposition of tariffs in early April imports surged, subtracted a massive amount from GDP growth in...
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