Second Quarter GDP Growth Could Be 5.0%
May 30, 2025 GDP forecasts for the second quarter got a significant boost this week as imports plunged in April. That drop made it clear that the import surge in the first three months of the year represented front-running by businesses as they tried to get goods...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
May 30, 2025 The world has turned topsy-turvy as tariffs are imposed, then postponed and, perhaps, reimposed. Nobody knows what to expect. We are all reacting to the latest events and making guesses about what happens next. We suspect that much of the current...
Consumer Sentiment
May 30, 2025 The final estimate of consumer sentiment for May was unchanged at 52.2. The preliminary reading was for a drop of 1.4 points to 50.8. Sentiment declined 4.8 points in April. The May level is the lowest since June 2022. Surveys of Consumers Director...
Personal Income and Consumption Expenditures — Monthly
May30, 2025 Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2% in April following an increase of 0.7% in March.. In the past year nominal spending has risen 5.4% What we are really interested in is "real" or inflation-adjusted spending. That is what goes into the GDP...
Pending Home Sales
May 29, 2025 Pending home sales declined 6.3% in April to 71.3 after having jumped 5.5% in March, The National Association of Realtors chief economist, Lawrence Yun said, "At this critical stage of the housing market, it is all about mortgage rates. Despite an...
GDP
May 29, 2025 . The preliminary estimate of first quarter GDP was -0.2% compared to the advance estimate of -0.3%. That compares to the final estimate of fourth quarter GDP of 2.5%. Growth in the past year has been 2.1%. That first quarter decline was seriously...
Final Sales
May 29, 2025 When the economy is slowing down, firms will accumulate unwanted inventories. Those inventories still show up in GDP, but they are unsold. Hence, GDP will be biased upwards. Similarly, in good times businesses will reduce inventory levels to...
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers
May 29 2025 It is important to remember that final sales is a measure of how many domestically produced goods are sold each quarter. But we also sell goods overseas -- our exports. And we purchase goods from other countries -- our imports. In the never-ending...
Gross Domestic Purchases Deflator
May 29, 2025 There are many different deflators that are available. This one is for gross domestic purchases which measures prices paid by U.S. residents. It is the one measure of inflation that the Commerce Department talks about when it releases the GDP...
Corporate Profits
May 29, 2025 Corporate profits from current production (corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) declined $118 billion which works out to a decline of 2.9% after having risen 5.4% in the fourth quarter. During the...
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