Finishing Strong, Continuing to Roll
January 17, 2025 The early data for December showed that the economy continued to roll as 2024 came to an end. Employment rose 246 thousand while the unemployment rate edged down 0.1% to 4.1%. Retail sales rose 0.4% after having climbed sharply in each of the...
Industrial Production
January 17, 2025 Industrial production jumped 0.9% in December after having risen 0.2% in November. The Fed reported that gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2% to total IP growth in December following the resolution of the Boeing strike. In...
Housing Starts
January 17, 2025 Housing starts jumped 15.8% in December to 1,499 thousand after having declined 3,7% in November. The increase consisted of a 3.3% increase in single-family homes and a whopping 58.9% increase in the very volatile multi-family category. With big...
Homebuilder Confidence
January 16, 2025 This series rose 1 point in January to 47 after having been unchanged in December and having risen 3 points in November. The recent gains seem to reflect hope that the Trump administration will cut a lot of the red tape that has been impeding the...
Retail Sales
January 16, 2025 Retail sales rose 0.4% in December after climbing 0.8% in November, 0.6% in October, and 0.9% in September. In the past year retail sales have risen 3.7%. Motor vehicle sales climbed by 0.7% in December after having jumped 3.1% in November and...
Initial Unemployment Claims
January 15, 2025 Initial unemployment claims rose 14 thousand in the week ending January 11 to 217 thousand after declining 8 thousand in the previous week. This series has changed very little in the past nine months. The 4-week average of claims was 210...
Consumer Price Index
January 15, 2025 The CPI rose 0.4% in December after climbing 0.3% in November and 0.2% in October. The year-over-year increase (for 2024) is 2.9%. We now expect the overall CPI to increase 2.9% in 2025. Food prices rose 0.3% in December after gaining 0.4% in...
Producer Price Index
January 14, 2025 The Producer Price Index for final demand includes producer prices for goods, as well as prices for construction, services, government purchases, and exports and covers over 75% of domestic production. Producer prices for final demand rose 0.2% in...
Why Are Long Rates So High?
January 10, 2025 The yield on the 10-year note continues to climb. A month ago it was 4.15%. Today it is 4.74%. It has risen 0.6% in a month. We attribute the dramatic increase to some combination of three factors. First, it appears that part of the increase...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
January 10, 2025 The Fed cut the funds rate again in December to 4.3%. We expect the Fed to continue reducing the funds rate to 3.8% by the end of next year. We now expect GDP growth of 2,5% in the fourth quarter followed by 2.9% GDP growth in 2025. Given the GDP...
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