Initial Unemployment Claims
February 20, 2025 Initial unemployment claims rose 5 thousand in the week ending February 15 to 219 thousand after declining 6 thousand in the previous week. This series has changed very little in the past ten months. The 4-week average of claims was 210...
Housing Starts
February 19, 2025 Housing starts plunged by 9.8% in January to 1,366 thousand after having jumped 16.1% in December. While a dramatic decline it was not unexpected given the brutally cold, snowy weather that existed in that month and the wildfires that devasted...
Homebuilder Confidence
February 18, 2025 This series fell 5 points in February to 42 after rising 1 point in January. This is the lowest reading for this index since September. Builders are worried about the imposition of tariffs, still high mortgage rates, and the cost of materials. ...
Cold, Fires, Chickens, and Eggs
February 14, 2025 The available data available for January are so distorted that it is impossible to get a good reading on the performance of the economy or inflation in the early part of the year. The CPI data for January were higher than expected and made...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
February 14, 2025 The Fed cut the funds rate again in December to 4.3%. We expect the Fed to continue reducing the funds rate to 4.0% by the end of this year. We saw GDP growth of 2,3% in the fourth quarter. We expect GDP growth in the first quarter of 2.5% and...
Industrial Production
February 14, 2025 Industrial production for January rose 0.5% after having jumped 1.0% in December after having declined 0.1 in November. As indicated below, the manufacturing sector declined slightly as car production fell sharply. The January increase was ...
Retail Sales
February 14, 2025 Retail sales fell 0.9% in January after having risen 0.7% in December and 0.7% in November. In the past year retail sales have risen 4.1%. The markets had expected no change in January. It appears that the wildfires in California that raged...
Producer Price Index
February 13, 2025 The Producer Price Index for final demand includes producer prices for goods, as well as prices for construction, services, government purchases, and exports and covers over 75% of domestic production. Producer prices for final demand rose 0.4%...
Consumer Price Index
February 12, 2025 The CPI rose 0.5% in January after rising 0.4% in December, and 0.3% in November. The year-over-year increase is 3.0%. We now expect the overall CPI to increase 3.4% in 2025. The January increase was larger-than-expected. Part of the sizeable...
Small Business Optimism
February 11, 2025 . Small business optimism declined 2.3 points in January to 102.8 after rising 3.4 points in December and having jumped 8.0 points in November. The level is finally above the 40-year average so-called breakeven point for this series which is...
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