Crosscurrents Galore
July 4, 2025 At first blush the June employment report appeared stronger than expected. Payroll employment rose 147 thousand which was considerably larger than the 100 thousand gain that was expected. The unemployment rate declined 0.1% to 4.1% rather than rising...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
July 4, 2025 The world has turned topsy-turvy as tariffs are imposed, then postponed and, perhaps, reimposed. A war breaks out between Israel and Iran. The U.S. joins in by bombing Iran. Nobody knows what to expect. We are all reacting to the latest events and...
Purchasing Managers Index — Nonmanufacturing
July 3 2025 The Institute for Supply Management not only publishes an index of manufacturing activity each month, they publish two days later a survey of service sector firms. The business activity index jumped 4.2 points in June to 54.2 after having declined 3.7...
Payroll Employment
July 3, 2025 . .Payroll employment climbed by 147 thousand in June after gaining 144 thousand in May. The job gain was higher than market expectations which were for an increase of 100 thousand. In the past three months payroll...
Private Employment
July 3, 2025 . Private sector employment climbed by 74 thousand in June after gaining 137 thousand in May. The job gain was higher than market expectations which were for an increase of 100 thousand. In the past three months private sector employment has risen on...
Unemployment Rate
July 3, 2025 The unemployment rate fell 0.1% in June to 4.1% after having been unchanged in May. The labor force declined 130 thousand in June while employment rose by 93 thousand. As a result, the number of unemployed workers declined by 222 thousand and the...
Nonfarm Workweek
July 3, 2025 In any given month employers can boost output by either additional hiring workers or by lengthening the number of hours that their employees work. Payroll employment climbed by 147 thousand in June. In the past three months the average increase has...
Average Hourly Earnings
July 3, 2025 Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% in June to $36.30 after rising 0.4% in May Earnings growth in the past year has been 3.7%. While nominal earnings have risen 3.7% in the past year, inflation has risen fairly quickly and real or inflation-adjusted...
Average Duration of Unemployment
July 3, 2025 The average duration of unemployment rose 1.2 weeks in June to 23.0 weeks after having fallen 1.4 weeks in May. It appears that unemployed workers are having a somewhat more difficult time becoming reemployed than they were six months or so ago....
Initial Unemployment Claims
July 3, 2025 Initial unemployment claims fell 4 thousand in the week ending June 28 to 233 thousand after having declined 9 thousand in the previous week. The labor market has hardly been affected by layoffs thus far. However, we know that some government...
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