Durable Goods Orders
November 26, 2025 Durable goods orders rose 0.5% in September after climbing 3.0% in August. Durable goods orders have risen 7.2% in the past year. Much of the change in durables is frequently in the transportation sector -- airplanes, cars, and trucks. In...
Initial Unemployment Claims
November 26, 2025 Initial unemployment claims declined 6 thousand in the week ending November 22 to 216 thousand after falling 6 thousand in the previous week. Claims can bounce around from week to week. There is little evidence that the federal government...
Pending Home Sales
November 25, 2025 Pending home sales rose 1.9% in October to 76.3 aftger having risen 0.1% in September. Pending home sales were fairly steady for the past couple of years but have begun to climb in the months ahead. The National Association of Realtors chief...
Consumer Confidence
November 25, 2025 . The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence fell 6.8 points in November to 88.7 after having declined 0.1 point in October. Consumer confidence reached a peak in November of last year at 112.8 but it has fallen steadily for most of...
Case Shiller Index of Home Prices
November 25, 2025 The seasonally adjusted Case Shiller Index of Home Prices in 20 cities declined 0.5% in September after having fallen 0.6% in August. Prices have risen 1.4% in the past year. The National Index which is a slightly broader measure of home price...
Producer Price Index
November 25, 2025 . The Producer Price Index for final demand includes producer prices for goods, as well as prices for construction, services, government purchases, and exports and covers over 75% of domestic production. Producer prices for final demand rose 0.3%...
Retail Sales
November 25, 2025 Retail sales rose 0.2% in September after climbing 0.6% in both July and August. In the past year retail sales have risen 4.3% Motor vehicle sales declined 0.3% in September after having risen 0.6% in August after having jumpedd1.6% in July....
Are the Tariffs Working?
November 21, 2025 A broad package of import duties went into effect on April 2, 2025, which Trump called “Liberation Day:. It is now time to step back and evaluate their impact on the economy thus far. We believe in free trade. In a world without tariffs or quotas...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
November 21, 2025 The economy rebounded from a 0.6% decline in the first quarter to a 3.8% growth rate in the second quarter. We now expect 3.3% GDP growth in the third quarter and 2.0% growth in the fourth quarter. Given the GDP forecast above, we expect the...
Consumer Sentiment
Novembert 21, 2025 The final estimate of consumer sentiment for November fell 2.6 points to 51.0 which is slightly higher than the preliminary reading of 50.3. After temporarily climbing to 61.7 in July, this series has declined steadily n the past four months....
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