Manage Your Fear
April 18, 2025 One can justify almost any forecast of the economic environment between now and yearend from recession with a big increase in the unemployment rate and a dramatic pickup in the inflation rate, to moderate growth with a slight pickup in inflation and...
Housing Starts
April 17, 2025 Housing starts plunged by 11.4% in March to 1,324 thousand after having risen 9.8% in February after falling 10.8% in January after jumping 16.9% in December. Clearly, starts have been exceptionally volatile in recent months, rising or falling by...
Initial Unemployment Claims
April 17, 2025 Initial unemployment claims declined 9 thousand in the week ending April 12 to 215 thousand after rising 5 thousand in the previous week. There is no evidence that the labor market has been affected by layoffs thus far. However, we know that...
Homebuilder Confidence
April 16, 2025 Homebuilder confidence rose 1 point in April to 40 after having declined 3 points in March. Builders are worried about the imposition of tariffs, still high mortgage rates, and the cost of materials. Keep in mind that the breakeven point for this...
Industrial Production
April 16, 2025 Industrial production for March declined 0.3% after having jumped 0.8% in February. In the past year industrial production has risen 1.3%. Breaking industrial production down into its three basic categories -- manufacturing, mining, and utilities. ...
Retail Sales
April 16, 2025 Retail sales rose 1.4% in March after climbing 0.2% in February after having fallen 1.0% in January. In the past year retail sales have risen 4.4% The wildfires in California that raged from January 7...
Everyone Expects the Worst – They Could Be Wrong
April 11, 2025 It is hard not to see the potential dangers from the Trump-initiated trade war. Consumer confidence has plunged. Small business confidence has declined. Investor confidence has collapsed. Those who envision a recession ahead or stagflation can...
GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rate Forecasts
April 11, 2025 The world has turned topsy-turvy as tariffs are imposed, then postponed and, perhaps, reimposed. Nobody knows what to expect. We are all reacting to the latest events and making guesses about what happens next. We suspect that much of the current...
Consumer Sentiment
April 11, 2025 The preliminary estimate of consumer sentiment for April fell 6.2 points to 50.8 after having declined 10.7 points in March and 3.4 points in February. This is the fourth consecutive decline in sentiment. The January level is the lowest since June...
Producer Price Index
April 11, 2025 The Producer Price Index for final demand includes producer prices for goods, as well as prices for construction, services, government purchases, and exports and covers over 75% of domestic production. Producer prices for final demand declined 0.4%...
Follow Me